The influence of conditional cash transfers on eligible children and their siblings (Lincove & Parker 2016)

Study Profile What's in a study profile?
Causal Study Rating:
Moderate Causal Evidence
Study Type:
Causal Impact Analysis
Outcome Findings:
Child labor: Mod/high-Favorable impacts
Education and skills gains: Mod/high-Favorable impacts
Citation
Lincove, J. A., & Parker, A. (2016). The influence of conditional cash transfers on eligible children and their siblings. Education Economics, 24(4), 352-373.

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Absence of Conflict of Interest.

Highlights

  • The purpose of the study was to examine the impact of Nicaragua’s Red de Proteccion Social (RPS) conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on attending school, working, and hours worked for children ages 6 to 16.
  • The authors used data from an experimental design where communities were randomly assigned to participate in the program. The authors used difference-in-differences to estimate the effects of the program, controlling for child and family demographics separately by child sex and child age groups.
  • The CCT was not associated with the probability of attending school and working for boys, but was associated with a statistically significant decrease in hours worked for boys ages 6-11 (2.8 hours) and for boys as 12-13 (8.7 hours). The program was also associated with a statistically significant 15.8 percent increase in the probability of school enrollment for girls ages 6-11.
  • The quality of the causal evidence presented in this study is moderate because, although it was based on a randomized controlled trial with high attrition, the authors demonstrated that the treatment and control groups were similar before the intervention. This means we have confidence that the estimated effects are attributable at least in part to the RPS conditional cash transfer program, although other factors could also have contributed.

Note: This page has been updated to comply with Executive Order 14168.

Intervention Examined

Red de Protección Social (RPS)

Features of the Intervention

The Nicaragua conditional cash transfer program was implemented in 2000-2002 as part of the Nicaragua’s Red de Proteccion Social (RPS) program that was funded by the InterAmerican Development Bank. The program was designed to provide an income supplement, reduce school dropout rates, and improve health for children. Three cash transfers were provided to include a food security transfer ($224 USD/year per household), which required monthly health education workshops and well child visits. The second was a school attendance transfer ($112 USD/year per household) requiring school for children ages 7-13, and finally, it included a school supplies transfer ($21 USD) contingent on school enrollment. Each household received the same amount of transfer dollars, regardless of the number of children in the home.

Features of the Study

The authors used data from an experimental design where 42 communities across the country were selected to participate based on their poverty rates and infrastructure to implement the program (21 in the treatment group and 21 in the control group). The communities were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. Data were collected annually to households with children in the treatment and control groups. The authors used difference-in-differences to estimate the effects of the program, controlling for child and family demographics, separately by child sex and child age groups: ages 6-11, always eligible for the program; ages 12-13, eligible during year 1 but aging out of the program during the pilot; and ages 14 to 16, who were never eligible for the program. The outcomes included school attendance, if the child worked the previous week, and weekly hours worked. The sample included 2,302 children ages 6 to 16 during the baseline year.

Findings

Employment/Child labor

  • The student found that RPS was associated with a statistically significant decrease in hours worked by for boys ages 6-11 (2.8 hours) and for boys as 12-13 (8.7 hours).
  • The study found no statistically significant relationship between RPS and working for boys across age groups.
  • The study found no statistically significant relationship between RPS and hours worked or working for girls across age groups.

Education (School participation/enrollment)

  • The program was associated with a statistically significant 15.8 percent increase in the probability of school enrollment for girls ages 6-11.
  • The study found no statistically significant relationship between RPS and school attendance for boys across age groups.

Considerations for Interpreting the Findings

The authors used data from an experimental design; however, there was a high attrition rate in the study with 26 percent of the treatment and 29 percent of the control group at the sub-cluster level. Additionally, this is an intent-to-treat analysis because the authors could not confirm receipt of the conditional cash transfer, which may have affected the results.

Causal Evidence Rating

The quality of the causal evidence presented in this study is moderate. Although the design was a randomized controlled trial, there was high attrition among the study sample, making the study ineligible to receive a high causal evidence rating. However, the authors demonstrated that the treatment and control groups were similar on a range of key characteristics before the intervention. This gives us confidence that the estimated effects are attributable at least in part to the Nicaragua RPS conditional cash transfer program, although other factors could also have contributed.

Reviewed by CLEAR: December 2018

Topic Area

Child Labor

Research Guidelines

Review Protocol: Child Labor Review Protocol

Review Guidelines: Causal Evidence Guidelines