Absence of conflict of interest.
Highlights
- The study's objective was to examine the impact of state-level minimum wage changes on job search efforts and employment.
- The authors conducted a non-experimental study to examine the impact of state-level minimum wage changes on job search efforts and employment, using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2003 to 2016. The authors used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of individuals with incomes near a minimum wage change who completed the ATUS to a comparison group of similar individuals in the same state who were not near a minimum wage change.
- The study did not find statistically significant effects of state-level minimum wage changes on job search efforts and employment.
- The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is low. This means we are not confident that the estimated effects are attributable to state-level minimum wage changes; other factors are likely to have contributed.
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Intervention Examined
Features of the Intervention
The authors studied the impacts of 259 state-level minimum wage changes in the U.S. from 2003 to 2016. State-level minimum wage changes affected all residents in the state where the change was implemented.
Features of the Study
The authors conducted a non-experimental study to examine the impact of state-level minimum wage changes on job search efforts and employment. They used data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), which includes information on individuals' job search efforts, and data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2003 to 2016. Across the U.S., there were 259 state-level minimum wage changes from 2003 to 2016.
The treatment condition included individuals who completed the ATUS five months before or after a minimum wage change. The comparison condition included individuals in the same state and year who completed the ATUS outside of this timeframe. Individuals in the sample were on average 45 years old. Nearly half were male and over 80 percent were White. Approximately 60 percent of individuals were employed and individuals who reported some job search activity spent on average 133 minutes of daily job searching.
The authors used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of individuals with incomes near the minimum wage change who completed the ATUS to a comparison group of similar individuals in the same state and year who completed the ATUS but were not near a minimum wage change.
Findings
Employment
- The study did not find statistically significant effects of state-level minimum wage changes on employment, workforce participation, job search status, or daily minutes searching for work.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
The authors included controls for pre-intervention characteristics required by the protocol: age, sex, and race. However, the SASR protocol also requires pre-intervention employment measures from at least one year before the intervention and the study period only included five months before the intervention. Since the authors did not account for preexisting differences between the groups before the intervention, these preexisting differences between the groups—and not the intervention— could explain the differences in outcomes. Therefore, the study is not eligible for a moderate causal evidence rating, the highest rating available for nonexperimental designs.
Causal Evidence Rating
Research Guidelines
Review Protocol: Living Systematic Annual Search and Review Protocol
Review Guidelines: Causal Evidence Guidelines