There is no conflict of interest.
Highlights
- The study's objective was to examine the impact of the New Jersey Criminal Justice Reform (CJR) on employment status, labor force participation, full-time job status, and hours worked per week for white adults. The authors investigated similar research questions for black adults, the profile of which can be found here.
- The authors used a difference in difference design to estimate the impacts of the New Jersey CJR on employment outcomes for white adults, using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from January 2012 to February 2020. They used a statistical model to compare employment outcomes before and after the New Jersey CJR was implemented, for white adults living in New Jersey to those living in other northeastern states during the same period.
- The study suggested there was a positive relationship between the New Jersey CJR and employment outcomes for white adults.
- The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is low because the authors did not ensure that the groups being compared were similar before the intervention. This means we are not confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the New Jersey CJR; other factors are likely to have contributed.
Intervention Examined
Features of the Intervention
Based on legislation passed by the New Jersey legislature in 2014, CJR was implemented in January 2017. The CJR required pretrial release to be determined based on perceived risk factors, rather than the existing money-based bail system. The CJR also required speedy trial limits to minimize pretrial detention time. The CJR resulted in reductions in rates of pretrial detention among defendants as well as reductions in the duration of pretrial detention among those detained. Given these reductions, this study examined whether the CJR impacted labor market outcomes.
Features of the Study
The authors used a difference in difference design to estimate the impacts of the New Jersey CJR on employment outcomes for white adults. The authors used monthly data from the CPS from January 2012 to February 2020 for white adults aged 25-54. The treatment group included individual-by-month observations for white adults living in New Jersey following the CRJ implementation in January 2017. The comparison group included individual-by-month observations for white adults living in New Jersey prior to the CRJ implementation and white adults living in one of the other northeastern states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The authors used a statistical model to compare employment outcomes before and after the New Jersey CJR was implemented, for white adults living in New Jersey to those living in other northeastern states during the same period.
Findings
Employment
- The study suggested there was a positive relationship between the New Jersey CJR and employment for white adults.
- The study suggested there was a positive relationship between the New Jersey CJR and full-time job status for white adults.
- The study did not find any relationships between the New Jersey CJR and labor force participation or hours worked per week for white adults.
Considerations for Interpreting the Findings
Pre-intervention demographic comparisons of New Jersey and the other northeastern states indicate pre-existing differences between the treatment and comparison groups in both demographic characteristics and outcome measures. Although the authors included some demographic controls in their statistical models to adjust for some of these differences, the authors did not include all the demographic control variables required by CLEAR’s Systematic Annual Search and Review Protocol, nor did they report evidence of parallel pre-intervention trends for all their outcomes. Pre-existing differences or trends between the treatment and comparison groups, rather than the intervention, could explain the observed differences in outcomes. Therefore, the study is not eligible for a moderate causal evidence rating, the highest rating available for nonexperimental designs.
The authors also note that in 2017, New Jersey expanded “ban-the-box” legislation designed to prevent employers from inquiring about the criminal history of job applicants. The partially concurrent implementation of this related piece of legislation could also explain some of the observed differences in employment outcomes during the CJR post-implementation period.
Causal Evidence Rating
Research Guidelines
Review Protocol: Living Systematic Annual Search and Review Protocol
Review Guidelines: Causal Evidence Guidelines