Effects of the Subsidized and Transitional Employment Demonstration on earnings after eight years (OPRE Report No. 2023-204) (Cummings, 2023)

Causal Study Rating:
High Causal Evidence
Study Type:
Causal Impact Analysis
Outcome Findings:
Earnings and wages: Mod/high-Favorable impacts

Citation
Cummings, D. (2023). Effects of the Subsidized and Transitional Employment Demonstration on earnings after eight years. (OPRE Report No. 2023-204). U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation. [San Francisco Wage Subsidy Program]

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Absence of conflict of interest.

Highlights

  • The study's objective was to examine the impact of the Subsidized and Transitional Employment Demonstration (STED) on earnings and wages in seven sites. This profile focuses on San Francisco’s wage subsidy program, the STEP Forward program. The authors investigated similar research questions for other sites; profiles of those studies are available here:
  • The study was a randomized control trial that assigned 837 participants to either the STEP Forward program or a control group. Using baseline survey and administrative data from the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH), the author used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of treatment and control group members.
  • The study found that that treatment group participants had significantly higher annual earnings than control group participants in the first six years after study enrollment and significantly higher cumulative earnings over the seven-year follow-up period.
  • The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is high because it was based on a well-implemented randomized control trial. This means we are confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the STEP Forward program, and not to other factors.

Intervention Examined

STEP Forward

Features of the Intervention

San Francisco County Human Services Agency has been implementing subsidized employment programs since 2009. The STEP Forward program is a wage subsidy program in San Francisco that convenes weekly job fairs to enable program members to interview with private employers for subsidized jobs. STEP Forward participants also receive career counseling, job interview preparation, and case management services. STEP Forward serves individuals receiving public assistance, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) recipients and Unemployment Insurance exhaustees.

Features of the Study

The study was a randomized control trial conducted in San Francisco, California to examine the impact of the STEP Forward program. Of the 837 public assistance recipients who enrolled in the study, 421 were randomly assigned to the STEP Forward program (the treatment group) and 416 to the control group that had access to other services offered by San Francisco County Human Services Agency and in the community. Most study participants were women (72 percent). Two in five were Black (42 percent), 19 percent were Hispanic, and 9 percent were White. About two-fifths had a high school diploma (40 percent). The study relied on multiple data sources for analysis, including a baseline survey at study enrollment and quarterly earnings and unemployment insurance data from the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH). The author used a statistical model to compare the outcomes of treatment and control group participants.


Findings

Earnings and wages

  • The study found that treatment group participants earned significantly more annually than the control group ($5,933 more) in the first three years after study enrollment.
  • The study also found a statistically significant effect on annual earnings in years four to six after study enrollment (with treatment group participants earning $2,941, $2,960, and $3,339 more each year respectively). However, the study did not find a statistically significant effect on annual earnings in year seven after study enrollment.
  • The study also found that treatment group participants had significantly higher cumulative earnings than control group participants ($17,925 more) over the seven-year follow-up period.

Causal Evidence Rating

The quality of causal evidence presented in this report is high because it was based on a well-implemented randomized control trial. This means we are confident that the estimated effects are attributable to the STEP Forward program, and not to other factors.

Additional Sources

Walter, J., Navarro, D., Anderson, C., & Tso, A. (2017). Testing rapid connections to subsidized private sector jobs for low-income individuals in San Francisco: Implementation and early impacts of the STEP Forward Program. (OPRE Report No. 2017-103). U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation.
Reviewed by CLEAR: May 2026

Research Guidelines

Review Protocol: Living Systematic Annual Search and Review Protocol

Review Guidelines: Causal Evidence Guidelines